000012660 001__ 12660
000012660 005__ 20160920162636.0
000012660 04107 $$aeng
000012660 046__ $$k2016-09-05
000012660 100__ $$aReid, S.G.
000012660 24500 $$aEffect on structural reliability of uncertain estimates of characteristic extreme wind loads

000012660 24630 $$n6.$$pInsights and Innovations in Structural Engineering, Mechanics and Computation
000012660 260__ $$bTaylor and Francis Group, London, UK
000012660 506__ $$arestricted
000012660 520__ $$2eng$$aStructural design loads are often based on extreme values of time-varying loads estimated from limited amounts of data. Uncertainty in the estimation of the design loads inevitably leads to uncertainty in the resultant levels of structural reliability. In this paper, uncertainty is assessed for estimates of extreme wind loads calculated using statistical methods based on the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER), fitting of a Gumbel distribution and Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT). The ACER method gave the best results, but all the methods gave results which would normally be considered to be sufficiently accurate for engineering applications. However, for structures designed on the basis of the estimated values of V100 or V500, the uncertainty in the estimated design loads produced very uncertain probabilities of failure with a significant increase in their expected value. It is concluded that the uncertain distribution of the probabilities of failure must be taken into account when evaluating structural safety and a ‘fiducial confidence function’ is proposed for this purpose.

000012660 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000012660 653__ $$a

000012660 7112_ $$aSixth International Conference on Structural Engineering, Mechanics and Computation$$cCape Town, South Africa$$d2016-09-05 / 2016-09-07$$gSEMC2016
000012660 720__ $$aReid, S.G.$$iNaess, A.
000012660 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000012660 8564_ $$s602155$$uhttp://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/12660/files/108.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, 108.pdf.
000012660 962__ $$r12552
000012660 980__ $$aPAPER