000004588 001__ 4588
000004588 005__ 20141118192709.0
000004588 0177_ $$2doi$$a10.3850/978-981-07-2219-7_P395

000004588 0247_ $$210.3850/978-981-07-2219-7_P395
$$adoi
000004588 04107 $$aeng
000004588 046__ $$k2012-05-23
000004588 100__ $$aTung, Yeou-Koung
000004588 24500 $$aConsideration of Total Cost Uncertainty in Risk-based Flood Defense System Design

000004588 24630 $$n5.$$pProceedings of the 5th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications
000004588 260__ $$bResearch Publishing, No:83 Genting Lane, #08-01, Genting Building, 349568 SINGAPORE
000004588 506__ $$arestricted
000004588 520__ $$2eng$$aFlood defense infrastructural systems (e.g., levees, storm sewers, and reservoirs) are installed in natural environments subject to random floods. The ability of the system with a design flow carrying capacity cannot be expected to handle floods of all magnitudes at all times during its intended service period. When flood magnitude exceeds the capacity of the system, damage would occur. Since flood damage is a function of system's flow carrying capacity and random flood magnitude, the damage itself is a random variable. In the conventional risk-based design of hydro-infrastructural systems, only the annual expected damage is considered in the trade-off analysis with the system installation cost. 
 Engineering designs in general involve choosing an alternative that is expected to yield the optimal outcome. However, due to the presence of uncertainties from various sources, the outcome of the design cannot be certain. In other word, there is always a likelihood that the chosen alternative would perform worse than a non-chosen one. This study proposes a framework of risk-based flood defense system design and evaluation based on the regret theory and the minimax principle. The risk measure of the expected opportunity loss (EOL) can explicitly quantify the adverse consequences under uncertain state of nature. This quantitative risk measure is conceptually compatible with the acceptable risk, and can capture the full probability features and the correlation effect of multiple alternative outcomes under consideration. 
The proposed risk-based design criterion is demonstrated through an example of flood defense planning study involving three alternatives for flood damage reduction. This example shows that the explicit consideration of tradeoffs between risk and failure consequences is important. Furthermore, numerical results also show that the uncertainty and correlation of the project net benefit could have a significant impact on the ranking and feasibility of design alternatives.

000004588 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000004588 653__ $$aFlood control, Decision making, Risk-based design, Risk management, Uncertainty analysis, Reliability analysis.

000004588 7112_ $$a5th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications$$cSingapore (SG)$$d2012-05-23 / 2012-05-25$$gAPSSRA2012
000004588 720__ $$aTung, Yeou-Koung$$iSu, Hsinting
000004588 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000004588 8564_ $$s139912$$uhttp://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/4588/files/P395.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, .
000004588 962__ $$r4180
000004588 980__ $$aPAPER