000010238 001__ 10238
000010238 005__ 20141205155706.0
000010238 04107 $$aeng
000010238 046__ $$k2008-10-12
000010238 100__ $$aHo, Naranmandora
000010238 24500 $$aStrong Motion Prediction Using Stochastic Green's Function Method and Evolutional Damage Prediction Based on Nonlinear Structural Models

000010238 24630 $$n14.$$pProceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000010238 260__ $$b
000010238 506__ $$arestricted
000010238 520__ $$2eng$$aWe hypothesized that the scale of the predicted Nankai Earthquake will increase gradually year by year as the time passes from the last occurrence in December 1946, and then we estimated strong motions chronologically from 2009 to 2060 for western Japan based on the up-to-date strong motion prediction method, i.e., the so-called Stochastic Green’s function method with hierarchical source heterogeneities. Next, we input the calculated chronological strong motions into a set of nonlinear response analysis models proposed by Nagato and Kawase and estimated building damage ratios for different structure types and numbers of floors. When we compare the evolutional damage ratios of buildings in the target areas with those for the reference case (corresponding to the scenario that will happen in 2036), we found that for every 10 years of delay in occurrence of the Nankai trough event we must expect 40% of increase in building damage, mainly in the epicentral areas.

000010238 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000010238 653__ $$aChronological Strong Motion Prediction, Evolutional Damage Prediction, Nankai earthquake, Damage Ratios, Nonlinear Response Analysis Models

000010238 7112_ $$a14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cBejing (CN)$$d2008-10-12 / 2008-10-17$$gWCEE15
000010238 720__ $$aHo, Naranmandora$$iKawase, Hiroshi
000010238 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000010238 8564_ $$s595551$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/10238/files/S02-021.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, Paper ID: S02-021.
000010238 962__ $$r9324
000010238 980__ $$aPAPER