000010840 001__ 10840
000010840 005__ 20141205155808.0
000010840 04107 $$aeng
000010840 046__ $$k2008-10-12
000010840 100__ $$aMahdyiar, Mehrdad
000010840 24500 $$aA Study on the Uncertainties in Earthquake Time-Dependent Probabilities in Japan

000010840 24630 $$n14.$$pProceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000010840 260__ $$b
000010840 506__ $$arestricted
000010840 520__ $$2eng$$aIn 2005, the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), in Japan, released a comprehensive seismic hazard model.. The model provides detailed information on the long term magnitude rate distribution of all subduction zones and regional crustal faults. For a number of seismic sources, the model estimates time-dependent rupture probabilities with strong implications on hazard and loss analysis. In general, the results of time-dependent rupture probability analysis depend strongly on the mean and aperiodicity values of the assumed recurrence density distributions. Often, there are large uncertainties in estimating these parameters due to the fact that data on the occurrences of large historic earthquakes on subduction zones and crustal faults are limited. It is important to account for these uncertainties and evaluate their impact on the results of the time-dependent analysis. It is the objective of this study to formulate and evaluate the effects of parametric and model uncertainty on the results of the renewal time-dependent rupture models in Japan. The results provide insight on the importance, and the scale, of such uncertainty on regional loss distributions.

000010840 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000010840 653__ $$aTime-dependent model, conditional probability, recurrence interval, uncertainty, likelihood

000010840 7112_ $$a14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cBejing (CN)$$d2008-10-12 / 2008-10-17$$gWCEE15
000010840 720__ $$aMahdyiar, Mehrdad$$iRong, Yufang$$iShen-Tu, BingMing$$iGuin, Jay
000010840 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000010840 8564_ $$s165797$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/10840/files/S01-02-015.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, Paper ID: S01-02-015.
000010840 962__ $$r9324
000010840 980__ $$aPAPER