000010977 001__ 10977
000010977 005__ 20141205155823.0
000010977 04107 $$aeng
000010977 046__ $$k2008-10-12
000010977 100__ $$aMiao, Qianjun
000010977 24500 $$aSocial Impacts of Incorrect Decision from Earthquake Forecasting

000010977 24630 $$n14.$$pProceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000010977 260__ $$b
000010977 506__ $$arestricted
000010977 520__ $$2eng$$aEarthquake is the top in all of nature disasters. It can bring a series of social or psychological or mentality and economic heavy impacts. Human being tries to seek a way for earthquake forecasting. On present situation of research, earthquake forecasting just likes a sword that has a double side blade. Successful earthquake forecasting can bring a positive effect. However, false earthquake forecasting or correct earthquake forecasting but a wrong decision can bring a negative effect. Successful earthquake forecasting is our target that we don’t need to discuss. False earthquake forecasting attributes to the development of science, which also don’t need to discuss on this paper. Here, we focus on discussion of negative effect by correct earthquake forecasting but a wrong decision. And how can we reduce negative effect by incorrect decision from earthquake forecasting. In this paper, we give an analysis of case about negative effect by correct earthquake forecasting but a wrong decision. That is earthquake panic event (meanwhile, pollution of Songhua River, flu of birds and beasts) in Harbin, Nov, 2005. One million citizens of Harbin escape. We find the key of the case. (1) Unprofessional director and professional researcher. (2)Director makes arbitrary decisions. (3) Frail psychological or mentality of the public need improve and spread earthquake knowledge and science. To solve those problems need to do: (1) GIS dealing with calm down the public; (2) Monitoring flow focus point of Internet information and frequently key word;(3)Construction of modernizations decision making system.

000010977 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000010977 653__ $$aEarthquake forecasting, Social impacts, Incorrect decision, Negative effect

000010977 7112_ $$a14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cBejing (CN)$$d2008-10-12 / 2008-10-17$$gWCEE15
000010977 720__ $$aMiao, Qianjun$$iZhao, Yi$$iMa, Baojun
000010977 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000010977 8564_ $$s665384$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/10977/files/01-1010.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, Paper ID: 01-1010.
000010977 962__ $$r9324
000010977 980__ $$aPAPER