000011037 001__ 11037
000011037 005__ 20141205155829.0
000011037 04107 $$aeng
000011037 046__ $$k2008-10-12
000011037 100__ $$aMolas, Gilbert L.
000011037 24500 $$aEstimating the Uncertainty of Portfolio Losses Using New ShakeMap Footprint Uncertainty Maps

000011037 24630 $$n14.$$pProceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000011037 260__ $$b
000011037 506__ $$arestricted
000011037 520__ $$2eng$$aThe uncertainty of economic or insured losses from large earthquakes can have many sources. The impact of the ground motion and loss estimation uncertainty to the portfolio loss uncertainty has been studied previously (Molas, et. al, 2006). Recently, the ground motion uncertainty corresponding to the ShakeMap ground motion maps have been estimated and published by CISN. ShakeMap ground motion estimates at or very close to recording stations have very small or zero uncertainty, while those farther away have uncertainty estimates that may exceed the standard deviations of the attenuation relationships, if the source parameters are not known. This study utilizes the spatially varying standard deviations of the ground motion estimates published with the ShakeMap. The 1994 Northridge earthquake in Southern California in the United States is presented as a case study. Monte Carlo simulations are applied around the median ground motion estimates based on a ShakeMap footprint. The simulation accounts for the inter- and intra-event components of the variance of the predicted ground motion. The intra-event component of the variance is considered to be spatial correlated to generate correlated random fields that realistically represent the ground motion distribution between sites. The results of this study can be used to gain a probabilistic perspective of the range of possible loss values for a scenario event, which is very useful for the management of risk.

000011037 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000011037 653__ $$aGround motion simulation, spatial correlation, Monte Carlo simulation, loss uncertainty

000011037 7112_ $$a14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cBejing (CN)$$d2008-10-12 / 2008-10-17$$gWCEE15
000011037 720__ $$aMolas, Gilbert L.$$iYavari, Elham$$iSeneviratna, Pasan$$iWindeler, Donald
000011037 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000011037 8564_ $$s1240870$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/11037/files/S01-02-020.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, Paper ID: S01-02-020.
000011037 962__ $$r9324
000011037 980__ $$aPAPER