000011608 001__ 11608
000011608 005__ 20141205155928.0
000011608 04107 $$aeng
000011608 046__ $$k2008-10-12
000011608 100__ $$aShanker, Daya
000011608 24500 $$aProbable Evidence for Periodicities in Seismicity in Gujarat and Adjoining Region, India: Implications on Future Earthquake Hazard

000011608 24630 $$n14.$$pProceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000011608 260__ $$b
000011608 506__ $$arestricted
000011608 520__ $$2eng$$aThe observations of temporal variation of seismic activity in Gujarat and adjoining region indicate evidence that a periodic seismicity probably exists. A complete data set from 1819 to 2006 of shallow earthquakes distributed over Gujarat and adjoining regions have been used for the first time to test the possible existence of periodicities and its implications on the future earthquake occurrences on the basis of stationary model of seismicity rates and seismic energy released in 11-years time window. The results exhibits a network of periodicities with predominant period at 1819-1848, 1898-1956 in low seismicity rate intervals followed by the 1856-1891 and 1962-2006 in high seismicity rate intervals with a period of 105 years in a harmonic variation of seismic energy release. The time interval of low seismicity rates is slightly larger than high seismicity rates. The low seismicity rate varies from 0.2 to 0.3events/year whereas the high seismicity rate varies from 0.4 to 1.0 events/year. The frequency distribution of earthquakes show that the earthquakes of small magnitude (M 4.0-5.9) follow the Poisson distribution and hence such earthquakes can not be predicted. However, the frequency distribution of large earthquakes (M 6.0-7.8) follows the nonrandom distribution (exponential distribution). The characteristics of non-randomness of earthquakes indicate that the prediction of magnitude and time of occurrences of forthcoming large earthquakes may be possible. The temporal variation of earthquake magnitude for three different magnitude ranges (4.0-4.9, 5.0-5.9 and 6.0-7.8) reflects that large earthquakes are preceded by high seismic activity in lower magnitude ranges. The seismic energy released in 11 year time windows shows a harmonic variation with a period of 105 years. The maxima of the harmonic curve coincide with the occurrence of large earthquakes. The detection of such kind of periodicities is important in earthquake study, because these patterns may lead to the prediction of large earthquakes.

000011608 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000011608 653__ $$aharmonic variation, distribution seismicity rates, non-randomness, Poisson 

000011608 7112_ $$a14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cBejing (CN)$$d2008-10-12 / 2008-10-17$$gWCEE15
000011608 720__ $$aShanker, Daya$$iYadav, Ram B.S.
000011608 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000011608 8564_ $$s544310$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/11608/files/09-01-0001.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, Paper ID: 09-01-0001.
000011608 962__ $$r9324
000011608 980__ $$aPAPER