000012031 001__ 12031
000012031 005__ 20141205160012.0
000012031 04107 $$aeng
000012031 046__ $$k2008-10-12
000012031 100__ $$aWang, Qiuliang
000012031 24500 $$aStudy on Methods of Reservoir Induced Seismicity Prediction of the Three Gorges Reservoir

000012031 24630 $$n14.$$pProceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000012031 260__ $$b
000012031 506__ $$arestricted
000012031 520__ $$2eng$$aBased on the analysis of seismogeological background, the Three Gorges Reservoir area is divided into 31 units according to different combined conditions of induced earthquake, together with 8 influencing factors, to give the prediction on probability and magnitude of RIS by adopting statistical prediction model, fuzzy mathematics and gray system model as well as artificial neural network model respectively. The results show as follows: in 31 units, the slight differences exist in results among three predictive methods, especially distinction between mathematics statistics models and artificial neural network model, which is also quite coincident with past macroscopical analogical prediction. The results are not only in accord with the past researchers’ basically, but also confirm with each other better: (1)from dam site to Miaohe segment, due to its geologic background, superficial fracture dislocation type of RIS may be triggered mainly, and the maximum (ultimate) magnitude will not exceed 3.0; (2) it is possible to trigger 4.5-6.0 earthquake in three places, including limestone area of southern Badong, near reservoir segment of Longchuanhe limestone area and far from reservoir segment of Gaoqiao Fracture limestone area; (3) it’s quite likely that the certain activity of Gaoqiao Fracture trigger tectonic reservoir induced earthquake.

000012031 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000012031 653__ $$aRIS, mathematic model, influencing factors, magnitude, prediction, the Three Gorges Reservoir

000012031 7112_ $$a14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cBejing (CN)$$d2008-10-12 / 2008-10-17$$gWCEE15
000012031 720__ $$aWang, Qiuliang$$iYao, Yunsheng$$iXia, Jinwu$$iZhu, Wenjing$$iWang, Dun$$iLi, Jinggang$$iZhang, Lifen
000012031 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000012031 8564_ $$s297082$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/12031/files/S02-034.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, Paper ID: S02-034.
000012031 962__ $$r9324
000012031 980__ $$aPAPER