000012097 001__ 12097
000012097 005__ 20141205160019.0
000012097 04107 $$aeng
000012097 046__ $$k2008-10-12
000012097 100__ $$aWilliams, Chesley R.
000012097 24500 $$aImpact of Time Dependent Recurrence Modeling on Seismic Risk Assessment: California Case Study

000012097 24630 $$n14.$$pProceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000012097 260__ $$b
000012097 506__ $$arestricted
000012097 520__ $$2eng$$aSeismic risk assessments are based on a combination of seismic hazard, building vulnerability and exposure characteristics. This analysis examines how key assumptions within the seismic hazard component mainly the recurrence modeling can impact seismic risk. This study compares the risk results for California for an economic portfolio of single-family residential structures produced for a time-independent recurrence model and a model including time-dependent recurrence for key fault systems. The resulting analysis shows on a California wide portfolio that the annualized losses are impacted by >5% for residential structures when comparing short-term to long-term event rates. However, not surprisingly, there are very large localized increases (up to +45%) in regions where events are overdue (e.g., along the Hayward-Rodgers Creek System) and decreases where events have recently happened (e.g., along the San Andreas fault system that ruptured in 1906). This analysis give credence to the need for the inclusion in seismic risk assessments of time dependent recurrence particularly for insurance contracts which typically have short duration (e.g., 1-year).

000012097 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000012097 653__ $$aSeismic Hazard, California, Time-Dependent Recurrence, Residential Exposure

000012097 7112_ $$a14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cBejing (CN)$$d2008-10-12 / 2008-10-17$$gWCEE15
000012097 720__ $$aWilliams, Chesley R.$$iAslani, Hesaam$$iMolas, Gilbert L.$$iSeneviratna, P.$$iWindeler, Donald S.
000012097 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000012097 8564_ $$s1410357$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/12097/files/S01-02-016.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, Paper ID: S01-02-016.
000012097 962__ $$r9324
000012097 980__ $$aPAPER