000013202 001__ 13202
000013202 005__ 20161114160331.0
000013202 04107 $$aeng
000013202 046__ $$k2009-06-22
000013202 100__ $$aThunnissen D., P.
000013202 24500 $$aMethod for determining margins in multidisciplinary space systems design

000013202 24630 $$n2.$$pComputational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earhquake Engineering
000013202 260__ $$bNational Technical University of Athens, 2009
000013202 506__ $$arestricted
000013202 520__ $$2eng$$aA method for determining margins and mitigating uncertainty in multidisciplinary systems design is described. This method provides a rigorous foundation for determining design margins and mitigating uncertainty in any complex multidisciplinary engineering system. The method begins with identifying a set of tradable system-level parameters. The variables of the design are then classified and assigned appropriate probability density functions. An advanced Monte Carlo technique called Subset Simulation is used for efficiently propagating the effects of uncertainty. Additional tradable system-level parameters are characterized through the use of the Theory of Total Probability. The results of Subset Simulation are compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation. Margins are determined by combining the risk tolerance of the engineer with the simulation results. The method is applied to the conceptual design of an Earth-orbiting reconnaissance satellite, where the margins for a set of system-level parameters are determined. The study revealed important differences between the calculated design margins and the values typically assumed in conceptual design. It is also demonstrated how this approach can also be used to mitigate the effects of uncertainties at an early stage in the design process, which cannot be done through the traditional application of heuristic margins.

000013202 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000013202 653__ $$aSubset Simulation, Monte Carlo Simulation, Multidisciplinary Design, Space Systems Engineering, Uncertainty, Margin Determination. Abstract. A method for determining margins and mitigating uncertainty in multidisciplinary systems design is described. This method provides a rigorous foundation for determining design margins and mitigating uncertainty in any complex multidisciplinary engineering system. The method begins with identifying a set of tradable system-level parameters. The variables of the design are then classified and assigned appropriate probability density functions. An advanced Monte Carlo technique called Subset Simulation is used for efficiently propagating the effects of uncertainty. Additional tradable system-level parameters are characterized through the use of the Theory of Total Probability. The results of Subset Simulation are compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation. Margins are determined by combining the risk tolerance of the engineer with the simulation results. The method is applied to the conceptual design of an Earth-orbiting reconnaissance satellite, where the margins for a set of system-level parameters are determined. The study revealed important differences between the calculated design margins and the values typically assumed in conceptual design. It is also demonstrated how this approach can also be used to mitigate the effects of uncertainties at an early stage in the design process, which cannot be done through the traditional application of heuristic margins.

000013202 7112_ $$aCOMPDYN 2009 - 2nd International Thematic Conference$$cIsland of Rhodes (GR)$$d2009-06-22 / 2009-06-24$$gCOMPDYN2009
000013202 720__ $$aThunnissen D., P.$$iMagnin M. l, J.$$iAu S., K.
000013202 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000013202 8564_ $$s217795$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/13202/files/CD276.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, section: Robust stochastic analysis, optimal design and model updating of engineering systems - i (MS).
000013202 962__ $$r13074
000013202 980__ $$aPAPER