The Aftershock Risk Index (Ari) - the Spatio-Temporal Quantification of Aftershock Impact After Strong Earthquakes


Abstract eng:
The fear of aftershocks is one of the major psychological burdens of a society during the first days after strong earthquakes. In the aftermath, building stability is often unknown and the loss of human life due to the collapse of pre-damaged structures often makes recovery more difficult. Most recently, this effect was observed during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence in Nepal in a few cases. There is an urgent need for a spatio-temporal aftershock risk indicator to provide affected stakeholders with appropriate measured information about the inherent risk. Based on experience from various past events, aftershocks and triggered earthquakes have been observed as a significant contributor to socio-economic disaster impacts. A state-of-the-art aftershock activity metric for future earthquake events has been developed by assembling parameters of earthquake clustering based on global and regional studies of aftershock evolution. The activity metric is built from multiple non-linear optimisation procedures and machine learning methods and results in stochastic permutations of possible aftershock activity for the next day which are then translated into macroseismic intensity maps. Since scientific maps with various indicators and statistical metrics are hard to transpose into daily life, an indicator system has been developed, which provides spatio-temporal scores for aftershock impacts. This study provides a first application example and indicates the need for a global implementation of such a system.

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Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
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Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.



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 Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18


Original version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 1018.:
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