Towards a Non-Ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe and Middle East


Abstract eng:
The ergodic assumption considers the time sampling of ground shaking generated in a given region by successive earthquakes as equivalent to a spatial sampling of observed ground motion across different regions. Under such assumption the resulting ground motion prediction equations are likely to have a region-biased median and a large aleatory-variability. With the availability of high quality strong motion datasets such as RESORCE, and advanced Non-linear Mixed Effects Regression algorithms, we could quantify regional variations in ground motion for Europe and Middle-East in a partially non-ergodic region-specific GMPE. In conjunction with the region-specific GMPE, we propose a refinement to the existing partially ergodic sitespecific PSHA methodology to scale seamlessly its applicability at regional level. We apply these methods to perform a partially ergodic site-specific PSHA using OpenQuake for 225 sites in Europe – Middle East. We then quantify the change in estimated hazard as result of shifting from ergodic to partially ergodic PSHA using hazard curves and hazard disaggregation. Region-specific PSHA (225 stations) show changes as large as 25% compared to ergodic computations. Site-specific PSHA performed on 80 stations with more than 5 records predicts even larger changes (more than 50% in some cases).

Contributors:
Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
Rights:
Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.



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 Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18


Original version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 1061.:
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