Methods of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in South China Sea Impacted By Local Potential Sources


Abstract eng:
The South China Sea (SCS) is recognized as an area at high risk of tsunamis. The Manila Trench has long been considered as the regional source of tsunamis that might affect Chinese coastal areas, and considerable analysis of the tsunami hazard has been conducted in this area. However, there has been no consideration of other potential local sources near the coastal area. Thus, the locations of local potential tsunami sources (PTSs) along the southern coast of China and the evaluation of their impact on tsunami hazard assessment require investigation. We identified eight local PTSs for given seismic activity parameters. For the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA), the lower-limit earthquake magnitude was determined as 7.0, based on numerical simulation of tsunami scenarios. Two targeted sites in the Pearl River Estuary and Taiwan Strait were selected for PTHA, which were referenced to Hong Kong and Xiamen. The annual rate of tsunami waves exceeding a given height (h ≥ H) was calculated for each site. The results show that the upper-limit earthquake magnitude is an important factor in the PTHA computation. The probabilities of tsunami waves exceeding a given height (h ≥ H) within 100 years and their return periods were calculated for each site. The results show that the probability of h ≥ 0.5 m within 100 years is 40% in Xiamen but only 10% in Hong Kong. If the Manila Trench were considered as a regional source, these probabilities would be higher. It is concluded that the tsunami hazard on the southern coast of China is very high and that both regional and local PTSs should be included in any future PTHA.

Contributors:
Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
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Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.



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 Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18


Original version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 109.:
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