Framework of the Estimation of the Health Status of the Population During An Earthquake Emergency

Abstract eng:
Hospitals play a paramount role during an earthquake emergency response. Large earthquakes have caused a large number of casualties in many communities in the past to the extent that the hospitals were overcrowded. Therefore, an important information for policy makers and leaders of the emergency response is the estimation of numbers of casualties that can result from critical earthquake scenarios. This paper assesses the demand of medical resources during an earthquake emergency response for a case study in the Carabayllo District, located in Lima, Peru, subjected to the 1974 Lima earthquake scenario occurring in the subduction zone off the coast of Lima. In order to evaluate this demand, this paper focuses on the injuries resulting from the earthquake. The analysis of this demand is based on the framework elaborated proposed by Ceferino et al. [1], which is also briefly described, to estimate the probability distribution of the number of injuries resulting from the earthquake and associated to different injury severities. The results verify the applicability and validity of this framework.

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