From a Risk-Targeted Regional Earthquake Model for South-East Asia To Region Specific Risk Models


Abstract eng:
The last decade has shown the social and economic vulnerability of countries in South-East Asia to earthquake hazard and risk. The 2004 M9.2 Sumatra earthquake and the associated tsunami caused significant casualties and economic losses generating major attention internationally due to the scale of its impact across the urban areas of South-East Asia and Indian Ocean (Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and India). While many disaster mitigation programs to improve societal earthquake resilience are under way focusing on saving lives and livelihoods, the risk management sector is challenged to model economic consequences. We present the hazard component suitable for a South-East Asia earthquake risk model covering Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines. The consistent regional model builds upon refined modelling approaches for 1) background seismicity, i.e. earthquakes not occurring on mapped fault structures, 2) seismic activity from geologic and geodetic data on crustal faults and 3) along the interface of subduction zones. We elaborate on building rate model for crustal fault systems (e.g. Sumatra fault zone, Philippine fault zone) as well as the subduction zones and showcase its characteristics. We combine this with an up-to-date ground motion model that is suitable for this tectonically complex area. We assign more weights to globally developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) due to the scarcity of strong ground motion data in Southeast Asia. We analyze the components of the risk model per country by computing the contributions by source type to typical risk metrics (return period losses, average annual loss) and considering the impact of the hazard model on all lines of business.

Contributors:
Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
Rights:
Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.



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 Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18


Original version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 1126.:
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