Modeling Post-Earthquake Serviceability of Railway Systems Based on the Database of the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster

Abstract eng:
In Japan, railway service plays an essential role for every aspect of socio-economic activities, especially in urban regions. Therefore, estimation of possibility and duration of suspension of railway service is an important issue in order to enhance social resiliency in case of loss of service as well as to prevent and mitigate significant degradation of the whole transportation systems. In this study, statistical analyses have been carried out for evaluation of post-earthquake serviceability of railway systems in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster on the basis of JMA seismic intensity. By following the two-step evaluation model for serviceability of utility lifelines proposed by the authors, an empirical model has been statistically-derived to predict railway service suspension in anticipate earthquake scenarios. Firstly, a GIS database was compiled with regard to railway lines, railway stations and service suspension caused by ground shaking and tsunami inundation. Maps of shaking intensity distribution in terms Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic intensity scale and those of tsunami inundation area along the coastal regions of Pacific Ocean were also compiled. Secondly, the relationship between the incidence of railway service suspension and shaking intensity was evaluated. On this basis, a logit model was fitted to predict the probability of occurrence of service suspension as a function of shaking intensity. Thirdly, the relationship between the duration of suspension and shaking intensity was evaluated and gamma distribution was fitted to predict the duration of suspension under the condition that service suspension occurs. By combining these two sub-models describing the probability and duration of railway service suspension, a prototype of postearthquake serviceability curve for railway systems was derived in terms of JMA seismic intensity. Although there remains a need for improvement of model accuracy, the prototype enables one to perform an easy evaluation of post-earthquake serviceability of railway systems.

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