Recovery Curves for Permanent Houses After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

Abstract eng:
The Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami catastrophically struck the eastern part of Japan on March 11, 2011, especially the coastal areas of the Tohoku region. As of March 8, 2016, the number of casualty is 19,418, with 2,592 people still considered missing (FDMA, 2016). This paper aims to quantify the recovery processes of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, and recovery curves are constructed based on disaster recovery public housing construction datasets. Firstly, it explains the background of housing reconstruction strategies conducted in the recovery phase and the importance of quantification of recovery processes. Secondly, the research method to construct recovery curves is described, followed by the data information used in this study. Thirdly, the recovery processes in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefecture, and recovery curves are demonstrated in terms of disaster recovery public housing construction conditions. Finally the processes and recovery curves are compared to understand regional different situations. As a result, the recovery curves, which quantitatively demonstrate the commencement and the completion conditions of the disaster recovery public housing construction for Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefecture, are obtained, as well as the three significant recovery curve parameters: Mean (λ), Standard deviation (ζ), and Coefficient of determination (R2). Then the following findings were clarified. (1) The coefficient of determination, which indicates level of relationship between the actual data and the obtained model, is more than 0.96 for all cases. This fact shows high adaptability of the cumulative normal distribution model to recovery processes represented by construction of permanent houses. (2) The shortest time period that construction commencement ratio reached 50% was 48.88 months for Iwate; the longest was 55.50 months for Fukushima. The time difference between them was 6.63 months. (3) With regard to the time period that the construction completed ratio becomes 50%, the shortest was of Miyagi with 57.84 months, followed by Iwate with 59.63 months and Fukushima with 60.28 months. (4) The time difference for construction completion between the shortest and the longest became shortened compared with the construction commencement. (5) The recovery ratio of the three prefectures is between 50% and 60% as of March 2011, five years since the disastrous event. It seems that the post-disaster recovery of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, as a whole, takes more time than other recovery cases such as the 1999 Taiwan Earthquake or the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.

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