Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of System Consisting of Several Facilities

Abstract eng:
As well as the functions of individual facilities, the functions of the system consisting of several facilities, such as lifelines, networks, supply chains and so on, have to be secured in case of disasters in order to maintain the urban function and to reduce the secondary damage to urban. For the future earthquakes, it is adequate to employ probabilistic approach where uncertainty of ground motion intensity is expressed by seismic hazard curve and that of capacity of facility is given as seismic fragility curve. By combining these curves, risk curve can easily be evaluated, from which some useful figures such as annual failure probability are calculated. However, in case of conducting the probabilistic risk analysis for system, such approach is not adequate since the seismic hazard curve cannot be applied to the system. It is apparent that applying the same seismic hazard curve to the facilities located in the different site is not correct. Applying the site specific seismic hazard curve to each facility is also not a proper procedure, since each earthquake is a common cause event for every facilities. This paper propose the multi-event model in order to evaluate the seismic risk of system, where numerous earthquake events are generated with their magnitude and annual occurrence frequency. Correlation of ground motion intensity between two sites is given as a function of site-to-site distance, based on the regression analysis using K-NET and Kik-net data base in Japan. The functional relationship among the facilities in the system is evaluated by the fault tree approach. It must be noted that this procedure can duly include the effect of correlation of failure probability of each facility. The conventional probabilistic approach cannot handle the correlation, so that the interval estimation has been employed with large uncertainty, so far As an application, a probabilistic risk analysis of a model system including a series system and a parallel one is conducted, followed by the comparison with the previous conventional procedure.

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