000018659 001__ 18659
000018659 005__ 20170118182235.0
000018659 04107 $$aeng
000018659 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000018659 100__ $$aPetersen, Mark
000018659 24500 $$aDeaggregation of Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard

000018659 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000018659 260__ $$b
000018659 506__ $$arestricted
000018659 520__ $$2eng$$aThe U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is composed of multiple logic trees that capture the epistemic uncertainty inherent in any estimate of seismic hazard at a site. Logic trees and associated weights describe, but are not limited to, variability of fault geometry, maximum magnitude, and regional seismicity rate. They are also used to represent different models of ground motion. With each new edition of the NSHM, the number of logic trees and associated branches grows. While this does not pose insurmountable computational demands, the computation of mean hazard maps does grow proportionally, particularly when computing associated uncertainties on a map scale, and it is difficult to determine which branches are the most influential. It is also increasingly important that the NSHM program produce maps of uncertainty; to this end, any reductions in computation time are a benefit. Using the California component of the NHSM, the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3), as an example, we examine uncertainty when computing seismic hazard at a site. Whereas analyses of uncertainty commonly use Monte Carlo sampling to compute fractiles about a mean hazard curve, for this analysis we iterate over the entire logic tree. Although this approach maintains correlations between branches, we are able track individual logic tree branch choices through a hazard calculation that would otherwise be obscured. We then deaggregate the range of possible ground motions or return periods and use tornado diagrams and stacked histograms to illustrate the relative influence of each logic tree branch on hazard at a site. In the case of UCERF3, fault slip-rate and ground motion models are the most influential, but models of fault slip distribution and the maximum magnitude of background seismicity sources are not.

000018659 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000018659 653__ $$auncertainty; seismic hazard; seismic risk; PSHA; deaggregation

000018659 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000018659 720__ $$aPetersen, Mark$$iShome, Nilesh$$iPowers, Peter
000018659 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000018659 8564_ $$s617638$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/18659/files/1934.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 1934.
000018659 962__ $$r16048
000018659 980__ $$aPAPER