Pan-European Representative Gmpe Model

Abstract eng:
Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) represent a key component in seismic risk analysis, and the consideration of both aleatory and epistemic sources of variability may have significant influence on the over- or under-estimation of the final assessment of losses. It has been observed that the development of new GMPEs over the past years did not improved the reduction of epistemic uncertainty, even though related knowledge is improved. A common approach to include epistemic uncertainty is to design a logic tree that proposes choices between various GMPEs with associated weights; although it is not necessarily the best suited for modelling epistemic uncertainty, as noticed by some authors. Recently, a simple and efficient model has been proposed by defining three representative GMPEs (lower, central and upper) to model epistemic uncertainty. The three GMPEs are derived from available median models. This alternative model is equivalent to the use of multiple GMPEs, provided the same range of epistemic uncertainty is sampled. The representative GMPE approach is tentatively applied to the European context for its application in risk assessment of critical infrastructures in the framework of the European-funded project INFRARISK. The resulting representative model is then confronted to actual ground motion records, which are selected from the European Strong Motion Database RESORCE. The proposed model enables a complex problem to be represented by a minimum number of branches for single-site hazard analysis and mapping.

• Export as: BibTeX | MARC | MARCXML | DC | EndNote | NLM | RefWorks
• Add to your basket