000018868 001__ 18868
000018868 005__ 20170118182245.0
000018868 04107 $$aeng
000018868 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000018868 100__ $$aRenault, Philippe
000018868 24500 $$aRobustness and Stability of Psha Results

000018868 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000018868 260__ $$b
000018868 506__ $$arestricted
000018868 520__ $$2eng$$aIn the past decades, many probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) have been performed on a regional or even sitespecific level. Today, some of them have been updates of previous estimates of the seismic hazard. This allows a discussion on the robustness and stability of PSHA results over time and also to reflect on the trend. It has been accepted in the scientific community that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to test PSHA results against data and check their validity through comparison. The paper discusses aspects of quality assurance as well as established processes of expert elicitation when dealing with large uncertainties. Scientific progress in earth sciences and new data is evaluated with respect to the need for updates and in light of their complexity. In the framework of codes and regulations, the question on robustness and stability – or even longevity – of results becomes very important. The latter can play an important role in the context of acceptability and credibility. With the help of some examples, the issues in evaluating the robustness and stability of PSHA results will be highlighted and future challenges will be shown. The case study used to demonstrate robustness is based on the PEGASOS and PEGASOS Refinement Project (PRP). In the conclusions, the paper makes an attempt to discuss and introduce criteria for the robustness and stability of PSHA results. To date, there is no measure for rationally evaluating the robustness of PSHA results. But there are qualitative means when comparing updated results with previous estimates. It is proposed to use a change of larger than 20% as quantification for a ‘significant’ change in the results.

000018868 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000018868 653__ $$aPSHA, Robustness, Stability, Quality Assurance, Comparison, PEGASOS

000018868 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000018868 720__ $$aRenault, Philippe
000018868 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000018868 8564_ $$s627349$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/18868/files/2380.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 2380.
000018868 962__ $$r16048
000018868 980__ $$aPAPER