000018881 001__ 18881
000018881 005__ 20170118182245.0
000018881 04107 $$aeng
000018881 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000018881 100__ $$aLallemant, David
000018881 24500 $$aUncertainty Analysis for More Efficient Incremental Dynamic Analysis of Buildings

000018881 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000018881 260__ $$b
000018881 506__ $$arestricted
000018881 520__ $$2eng$$aThis paper describes statistical procedures for characterizing and accounting for uncertainty in earthquake fragility models. Both fully analytical and non-parametric bootstrap methods are used to describe the conditional probability distribution of damage exceedance given an intensity measure. This enables the development of confidence intervals for fragility curves for any confidence level of interest. When analyzing annual collapse rate, the uncertainty in fragility curves gets propagated when integrated with the seismic hazard curve. This study therefore proposes methods to estimate the moments as well as the full distribution of the resulting annual damage exceedance rate. This is a significant improvement from current practice, which only use the “expected fragility” to integrate with the hazard curve, thus producing a single value for annual collapse rate. Using an example for a building analyzed through incremental dynamic analysis for a site in Oakland CA, this study demonstrates the significant uncertainty surrounding the annual collapse rate and demonstrates simplified methods to characterize this uncertainty through a closed-form beta-distribution model.

000018881 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000018881 653__ $$aFragility curves, uncertainty modeling, beta distribution, bootstrap method

000018881 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000018881 720__ $$aLallemant, David$$iKiremidjian, Anne$$iBurton, Henry
000018881 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000018881 8564_ $$s491115$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/18881/files/2402.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 2402.
000018881 962__ $$r16048
000018881 980__ $$aPAPER