Tsunami Hazard Asessment in Southern Peru Using Numerical Simulation

Abstract eng:
Peru is located in high a seismicity region, reason why great tsunamis have occurred, one of them the 1868 Arica tsunami caused massive destruction in the southern Peru and the northern Chile, with an approximately 9.0 moment magnitude (Mw.) The purpose of this study is to develop tsunami hazard maps in the southern Peru through numerical simulation. Using as source models, the 1868 tsunami and a possible future event, the tsunami mapping were developed. The target area in this study is Ilo City in Moquegua Region, which is very prone to tsunami damages, not only because of the existence of a seismic gap, since 1868, but also because of the unawareness of people and the lack of hazard maps in the area. Numerical simulations were executed using the TUNAMI-N2 code, developed by the Disaster Control Research Center (DCRC), Tohoku University, Japan, with Cartesian coordinates for a nested grid system. The results of the historical source were compared with those obtained by Okal et al. (2006) showing concordance. Also by using the recorded data available of the wave height reached in cities of Peru and Chile it was possible to validate the model. The maximum inundation height was up to 14 m for the historical event and could cause serious damage and even worse could stop the economic activities of the area. For the future event there is not much inundation but the high velocities should be taken into account. The results obtained in this study may help to understand the tsunami inundation features in southern Peru, increasing the awareness through hazard maps and possible evacuation routes.

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