Seismic Hazard Analysis in Peru

Abstract eng:
A seismic hazard analysis developed during 2011-2013 by the Geophysical Institute of Peru and supported by the World Bank for Peru is presented. Event information updated until 2010 was used. Based on this information 33 seismic sources were defined, including areas beyond the borders with Chile, Ecuador and Brazil. Several ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) applicable to the region were analyzed and tested, after which two of them were selected based on their better observed performance. The seismic hazard model results confirm the great influence of the seismic activity in the subduction zone; however, it is interesting to note fairly high intensities near Moyobamba (San Martin Department) related to shallow activity. The accelerations on the central coast (near Lima) for a return period of 475 years were found to be 0.45g, higher than those established by the current seismic design standard E.030 (0.40g), which is currently under review. The highest intensities are found on the South coast; for example, in the city of Ica (affected by the August 2007 earthquake) the intensity for a 475 return period is 0.47g, while in the Northern coast intensities are 0.41g. The points within the continent show lower intensity as one moves away from the subduction zone, reaching intensity values as low as 0.08g in Puerto Maldonado, capital of Madre de Dios Region, near the confluence of the borders of Peru, Bolivia and Brazil. The information generated in this analysis should be complemented by local effects studies conducted in several cities (Lima, Arequipa, Ica and Moquegua) to obtain design intensities in all types of soil. The current seismic zoning of Peru (Standard E.030) considers three areas with different design intensities. The proposed new standard E.030 considers four areas, splitting the current zone I (zone of lower intensity) into two new zones. The intensity proposed in the new version of the E.030 standard is 0.45g for the entire coast, value that reasonably agrees with the results of this study. It is expected that this study will be used as a reference for all future infrastructure projects carried out in Peru.

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