Single Station Sigma in Chile

Abstract eng:
Single station sigma allows for a more realistic estimation of expected seismic demand. The use of single-station sigma in a non-ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analsyis framework avoids the double counting of uncertainties and allows for the more rigorous incorporation of site and path effects into hazard estimations. We present a ground motion prediction model (GMPE) developed from a catalogue that includes Chilean interplate and inslab events. The model is used to evaluate the quantity of uncertainty that can be attributed to source, path, site effects, and what can be treated as pure aleatory uncertainty. Our results show remarkable agreement with other studies in some components of the overall uncertainty, but differences in other components, which shed light into the areas that could be advanced in the future. Site characterization and prediction of V s30 through proxies represent a key challenge and where leap improvement can be achieved.

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