000019082 001__ 19082
000019082 005__ 20170118182258.0
000019082 04107 $$aeng
000019082 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000019082 100__ $$aRupakhety, Rajesh
000019082 24500 $$aOn the Selection of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Seismic Hazard Assessment in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

000019082 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000019082 260__ $$b
000019082 506__ $$arestricted
000019082 520__ $$2eng$$aGround-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) which quantify the attenuation of key earthquake strong-motion parameters with distance, have a major impact on seismic hazard analysis. In GMPEs, the random variability of amplitudes about a median prediction equation is considered as aleatory uncertainty whereas the uncertainty concerning the correct value of the median is epistemic. Epistemic uncertainties which arise from lack of knowledge about models and data should be considered in seismic hazard assessment to reach a reliable result for the region under study. Data-driven model selection would decrease epistemic uncertainties by reducing subjectivity and by guiding the selection process in a quantitative way. In this study, we review the likelihood-based (LH and LLH) and the Euclidean distance-based ranking (EDR) methods, then we introduce a new procedure on the basis of deviance information criterion (DIC), for selecting the proper GMPEs. To showcase the method, eight candidate GMPE models are ranked by LLH, EDR and DIC. The method is not only shown to optimize the selection of GMPEs for the given region in an unbiased way through the Bayesian statistics, but also solves the problem associated with the previous data-driven methods.

000019082 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000019082 653__ $$aGMPEs, Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, deviance information criterion, Bayesian statistics

000019082 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000019082 720__ $$aRupakhety, Rajesh$$iHalldorsson, Benedikt$$iHrafnkelsson, Birgir$$iSnæbjörnsson, Jónas þÓr$$iÓlafsson, Símon$$iKowsari, Milad
000019082 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000019082 8564_ $$s433285$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/19082/files/2809.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 2809.
000019082 962__ $$r16048
000019082 980__ $$aPAPER