Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Evaluation Considering Uncertainty of Fault Slips

Abstract eng:
It is pointed out that probabilistic Tsunami Risk evaluation is useful to enterprise risk management as well as performance based design. Although a probabilistic Tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) has been proposed for site basis hazard determination, no such study has yet been conducted in multi-Tsunami loss event simulation with shock loss considering uncertainties in the height of Tsunami wave caused by inaccurate estimation of spatial slip variability. Especially, since the uncertainty in the height of wave height caused by the inaccurate estimate of the fault slip affects the outcome of probabilistic loss evaluation, it is essential to model slip distribution. In particular, the uncertainty in the estimate of fault slips cannot be ignored, when considering a huge Tsunami source such as the Nankai Trough. In this paper, the schematic method to evaluate the uncertainty of the height of Tsunami wave on shore line is proposed. In the calculation of the height of Tsunami wave, Green Function Method is applied. The validation and calibration of wave height are also performed in order to reflect the non-linear effect in the propagation of Tsunami wave. The uncertainty in the slip distribution is approximated by the truncated Cauchy distribution considering correlation matrixes between amounts of the slip and distances between every subfault.

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