000019121 001__ 19121
000019121 005__ 20170118182300.0
000019121 04107 $$aeng
000019121 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000019121 100__ $$aCarlos, De La Llera Juan
000019121 24500 $$aEmpirical Fragility Curves of RC Buildings in Chile Using a Bayesian Cumulative Link Model

000019121 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000019121 260__ $$b
000019121 506__ $$arestricted
000019121 520__ $$2eng$$aChile is known as one of the most seismic countries in the world showing approximately one event above magnitude 8 every ten years. Unexpected damage occurred in reinforced concrete (RC) buildings during the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake. Calculating the risk for RC buildings to exceed a given damage state during potential future seismic events is thus of paramount importance. It is assumed that the risk can be calculated from a combination of an exposure model, an intensity hazard distribution, and the vulnerability definition of RC buildings. Construction of fragility curves is part of the process for vulnerability definition. We propose here in an innovative methodology to build empirical fragility curves with the collected data of Chilean RC buildings. After the 2010 Maule earthquake, a database of the damage states of Chilean RC buildings was built by the assessment of structural engineers from companies or municipalities. Damage was classified in five states: no damage, slight, moderate, severe and complete damage states. The database is composed of observations made in six Chilean cities exposed to different seismic intensity. An interpolation of a 2010 shakemap provides the intensity measure occurring at the location of each building. Different generalized linear models were tested and it was shown that the cumulative logit link model provides the best fit of fragility curves. Cumulative link models for ordinal data ensure that fragility curves do not cross. The number of buildings floors and the year of construction are considered as covariates of our model. A Bayesian approach is adopted to obtain estimates and distribution of the parameters describing the statistical model. The resulting fragility curves for RC buildings are compared with results available in the literature. The provided fragility curves for Chilean RC buildings is the major contribution of this study. Finally, the usability of the curves is investigated from a risk perspective, and the need of more information to improve the fitting procedure is discussed.

000019121 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000019121 653__ $$aseismic fragility curves; empirical data; Bayesian statistic; RC buildings; earthquake vulnerability.

000019121 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000019121 720__ $$aCarlos, De La Llera Juan$$iCarolina, Magna-Verdugo$$iHernan, Santa Maria$$iPhilomène, Favier$$iFernando, Quintana$$iMatias, Hube
000019121 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000019121 8564_ $$s1166686$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/19121/files/2902.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 2902.
000019121 962__ $$r16048
000019121 980__ $$aPAPER