Sensitivity of Induced Seismicity Risk To Source Characterization, Ground Motion Prediction, and Exposure

Abstract eng:
We evaluate the impact of earthquake magnitude distribution, ground motion prediction equations, and exposure on repair cost risk for induced seismicity at a site in Oklahoma City in the United States. There has been a significant increase in earthquakes in some of the traditionally low seismicity regions of the Central and Eastern US. Here, we perform sensitivity analyses of various components that affect seismic risk to determine how the variability in measurements of these components affect the variability in estimated risk. For example, a 100-fold change in earthquake activity rate increases the hazard 100-fold; whereas alternative earthquake magnitude distributions, with maximum magnitudes of 6 versus 7, have little impact on risk. We assess the impacts of earthquake activity rate, magnitude distribution, and ground motion prediction equations on seismic hazard and repair cost risk, and the impact of exposure on risk. These sensitivity analyses can be used to identify those components that are more critical for risk assessment, and hence would benefit the most from better constraints. This information can be beneficial for better allocation and prioritization of the limited resources, and for data collection of the more critical factors that impact risk from induced seismicity.

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