Psha Testing Against Historical Seismicity: Example of France

Abstract eng:
In order to test PSHA outputs against historical seismicity data, the seismic risk is first introduced in terms of annual probabilities of occurrence of given damage degrees for vulnerability class B buildings (EMS98 scale). Then the risk is calculated from two methods. The first one considers historical earthquakes of epicentral Intensities I 0 = VI to IX, and statistics of affected areas. The second one is based on convolution of seismic hazard and fragility curves. Seismic hazard is described by the SHARE map of the metropolitan France. Fragility curves are described in the form of a log-normal distribution of the probability of exceedance of a given damage versus the PGA, according to the recent results of the SYNER-G European research program. The risk calculated on the basis of the SHARE map and fragility curves is tremendously higher, by a factor of 100, than the historically observed risk. Some tracks are discussed on the origin of this gap, on ways to bridge it and on further uses of PSHA testing.

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