Individual and Societal Risk Metrics as Parts of a Risk Governance Framework for Induced Seismicity

Abstract eng:
This study serves three purposes: (i) to review appropriate metrics for life safety (ii), to provide the outline of a robust mathematical framework quantifying and comparing risk safety metrics, and (iii) to provide upper bounds for aggregate measures of risk. In recent decades, the significant increase in seismicity caused by anthropogenic activities such as hydraulic fracturing, fluid injections, and mining, has posed the challenge of establishing a framework governing the risks. Risk metrics, which provide the baseline for risk management and decisionmaking, are a pivotal component of the risk governance framework. There is a broad spectrum of metrics that can be implemented; however, all were developed for rather different disciplines. In this study, we select the ones that are more closely related to the context of induced seismicity. Next, we introduce a general mathematical framework to define generalized risk metrics, which is based on the concept of norms in functional analysis. This framework allows a uniform comparison of different individual and societal risk metrics, and comparison across different activities and technologies. The second part of the paper focuses on the computational framework for the calculation of individual and societal risk. The framework is based on the wellestablished PSHA analysis and the PEER probabilistic performance-based seismic evaluation framework. The final part of the paper deals with the challenge of aggregate risk measures by providing upper bounds that can be compared with prescribed life safety criteria.

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