Seismic Risk Assessment of Spatially Distributed Electric Power Systems


Abstract eng:
The adequate performance of critical infrastructure such as transportation, telecommunications, healthcare, and electric power systems are essential to the resilience of communities after major earthquakes. However, assessing the seismic risk of networks is more complex than for individual structures since the performance of systems depend on several spatially distributed intensity measures and the interdependence amongst the system’s components. A convenient and probabilistically consistent way of performing the assessment is by the use of a stochastically-generated earthquake catalogue. This paper computes the seismic risk of electric power systems and its methodology can be summarized in three steps: (i) sample hazard-consistent seismic scenarios; (ii) compute the overall performance of the system for each scenario; and (iii) estimate the seismic risk from the performances of all earthquake scenarios. The resulting risk is represented by the commonly used expected annual service loss of the system, but also by the complete probability distribution of accumulated deficit of electric service. The methodology is applied to the electric network in north Chile, and is used to estimate the Energy Not Supplied (ENS) and the Energy Index of Unreliability (EIU) due to seismic events. Finally, an evaluation of the effect that different sampling methods have on the expected values and uncertainty of results is presented.

Contributors:
Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
Rights:
Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.



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 Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18


Original version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 3825.:
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