000019558 001__ 19558
000019558 005__ 20170118182324.0
000019558 04107 $$aeng
000019558 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000019558 100__ $$aItoi, Tatsuya
000019558 24500 $$aStatistical Analysis of Seismic Motion Based on Hierarchical Bayesian Models

000019558 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000019558 260__ $$b
000019558 506__ $$arestricted
000019558 520__ $$2eng$$aAn attenuation relationship, i.e., a ground motion prediction equation, is a statistical equation, conventionally used to predict ground motion intensity measure in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Ground motion prediction consists of analysis of the source, propagation path and site amplification characteristics. The site amplification characteristics are considered to be important factors affecting precision of ground motion prediction, therefore a site-specific ground motion prediction is desirable for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A conventional attenuation relationship, however, is not a site-specific but a generic equation to predict ground motion intensity that is because of the assumption of ergodicity, because the number of records that are observed at specific site is limited. A Bayesian approach is considered efficient for constructing a site-specific attenuation relationship. This study proposes a methodology to develop a site-specific attenuation relationship by employing a hierarchical Bayesian model. Then, a site-specific attenuation relation for JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) seismic intensity scale is developed for crustal earthquakes observed in Japan from 1997 to 2011. The developed attenuation relationship by the hierarchical Bayesian method is considered less biased and explicitly accounts for all the prevailing uncertainties that is because of the less assumption of ergodicity. The attenuation relationship by the least square method was considered to bias the mean value of the predicted JMA seismic intensity up to about one, and to overestimate the standard deviation of aleatory uncertainty around four-thirds.

000019558 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000019558 653__ $$aPSHA, Attenuation relation, Ergodic assumption, Ground motion, Hierarchical Bayesian model

000019558 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000019558 720__ $$aItoi, Tatsuya$$iSekimura, Naoto$$iHamada, Takanari
000019558 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000019558 8564_ $$s515304$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/19558/files/389.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 389.
000019558 962__ $$r16048
000019558 980__ $$aPAPER