000019563 001__ 19563
000019563 005__ 20170118182324.0
000019563 04107 $$aeng
000019563 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000019563 100__ $$aGerstenberger, Matthew
000019563 24500 $$aIs Our True Understanding of Earthquake Occurrence Reflected in Modern Building Codes?

000019563 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000019563 260__ $$b
000019563 506__ $$arestricted
000019563 520__ $$2eng$$aFor more than 20 years, the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) has been constructed using the standard methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In this approach a source model is first constructed by combining models developed from earthquake catalogue data and active fault data; these models are assumed to be Poissonian in nature. The combined source model is then coupled with ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to estimate the potential shaking at desired locations. In recent years, there has been considerable progress and improvement in understanding of the uncertainties inherent in GMPEs. In our current work, we are revisiting some of the fundamental assumptions of the NSHM and investigating how both model and parameter uncertainties in the earthquake source and ground motion modelling propagate through to the end uses of the model. In New Zealand, a major end-use is the development of anti-seismic provision in the national building design standards. Some uncertainties are not quantified in the present model. These include uncertainties resulting from a paucity of earthquake occurrence data and from different methods that can be used to model the seismic sources. Also the stationary Poisson asumption ignores the known clustering of earthquakes in time and space. This paper will explore the impact of including these uncertainties in the NSHM on downstream risk-based applications of the model, with a view to more robust estimates of risk for use by industry and in the development of design standards.

000019563 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000019563 653__ $$aPSHA; Seismic Hazard; Uncertainty; NSHM, New Zealand

000019563 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000019563 720__ $$aGerstenberger, Matthew$$iMcverry, Graeme$$iRhoades, David
000019563 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000019563 8564_ $$s252949$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/19563/files/3902.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 3902.
000019563 962__ $$r16048
000019563 980__ $$aPAPER