A Method for Comparing Psha Results To Historical Observations Using Fragility Curves


Abstract eng:
A method for comparing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) results with historical macroseismic observations is proposed, with specific application to the South-East French territory. As the mean damage, i.e. the average annual damage expected in the historical building stock, is the selected measure of comparison, procedures for respectively converting macroseismic intensities and PGA levels, for which PSH estimates are provided, into mean damage values are first presented. The originality of the method lies in the implementation of a logic tree approach, handling the different sources of uncertainty, and in the use of empirical fragility functions, representative of the vulnerability of the old building stock. Different approaches for comparing PSH results with historical observations at different scales are then outlined. Sitespecific comparisons are first presented. To overcome the lack of macroseismic data at single sites, a method for aggregating the information available at a set of sites is then proposed. The comparison is then extended to the regional scale. To this aim, spatially-correlated PGA random fields, constrained to the available macroseismic observations, are generated.

Contributors:
Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
Rights:
Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.



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 Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18


Original version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 4117.:
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