Villacis, Carlos

Integrated Assessment of Earthquake Risk in Quito, Ecuador Using Openquake

Abstract eng:
The city of Quito (Ecuador) reflects the complexity of earthquake risk in capital cities of South America: a substantial sized population, a considerable seismic hazard (e.g., peak ground acceleration above 0.4 g for a return period of 475 years) and low-income settlements that increase the potential for adverse impacts. In this sense, a holistic assessment of the scale and consequences of earthquake impacts in cities such as Quito has become a focal point of the South America Risk Assessment (SARA) project. This paper presents an assessment of the potential adverse impacts from earthquakes within Quito in an integrated manner by moving beyond the simple estimation of physical damage, to the assessment of direct losses coupled the social vulnerability of the city’s communities. For the integrated analysis of earthquake risk, direct damages were estimated accomplished via: (i) the selection of earthquake ruptures and assessment of ground motion fields considering recent and publicly available seismic hazard studies; (ii) the development of exposure models using information from recent national census and cadastral databases; (iii) the generation of fragility functions of common residential building types; and (iv) the calculation of collapse maps for the selected scenarios. The social vulnerability of Quito was measured using composite indicators in order to identify factors that may contribute to the potential for loss within communities such as the habitation of fragile settlements. To derive an estimate of risk from a comprehensive perspective, a priority index was evaluated via the combination of the social vulnerability index with the direct risk estimates. These evaluations were conducted at census subdivisions in order to prioritize areas where the potential for damage is highest and where populations are least likely to recover. The results indicate a differential pattern of integrated risk within the city that is the result of geography and location, the physical vulnerability of dwellings, and the pre-existing social conditions of the people living there.

Contributors:

Torres, Jairo Andrés Valcarcel

Conference Title:

Proceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Conference Title:

16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Conference Venue:

Santiago (CL)

Conference Dates:

2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13

Rights:

Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.