000019785 001__ 19785
000019785 005__ 20170118182336.0
000019785 04107 $$aeng
000019785 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000019785 100__ $$aWoo, Gordon
000019785 24500 $$aQuantitative Protocols for Decision-Making in Operational Earthquake Forecasting

000019785 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000019785 260__ $$b
000019785 506__ $$arestricted
000019785 520__ $$2eng$$aGuidelines are presented here for establishing quantitative protocols for decision-making in Operational Earthquake Forecasting. These guidelines are based on a taxonomy of possible actions that might be taken during a seismic crisis, when an assessment of the probability of a significant earthquake is undertaken on a regular basis. By taking account of the uncertainty in the estimation of this probability, and also in the leverage ratio of mitigated loss to action cost, actions can be decided on the basis of the level of confidence that the benefits of the action do outweigh the costs. This leads to a colourcoded advisory system for taking actions in response to an operational earthquake forecast.

000019785 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000019785 653__ $$aoperational; earthquake; forecasting; decision; protocols

000019785 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000019785 720__ $$aWoo, Gordon
000019785 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000019785 8564_ $$s149181$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/19785/files/44.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 44.
000019785 962__ $$r16048
000019785 980__ $$aPAPER