Quantitative Protocols for Decision-Making in Operational Earthquake Forecasting
Abstract eng: Guidelines are presented here for establishing quantitative protocols for decision-making in Operational Earthquake Forecasting. These guidelines are based on a taxonomy of possible actions that might be taken during a seismic crisis, when an assessment of the probability of a significant earthquake is undertaken on a regular basis. By taking account of the uncertainty in the estimation of this probability, and also in the leverage ratio of mitigated loss to action cost, actions can be decided on the basis of the level of confidence that the benefits of the action do outweigh the costs. This leads to a colourcoded advisory system for taking actions in response to an operational earthquake forecast.
Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
Rights:
Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
Record appears in:
Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18
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