000019819 001__ 19819
000019819 005__ 20170118182338.0
000019819 04107 $$aeng
000019819 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000019819 100__ $$aPagani, Marco
000019819 24500 $$aModeling Seismic Hazard By Integrating Historical Earthquake, Fault, and Strain Rate Data

000019819 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000019819 260__ $$b
000019819 506__ $$arestricted
000019819 520__ $$2eng$$aThe OpenQuake-engine software developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is an open-source tool for the calculation of seismic hazard and risk. It provides the capability to execute complex seismic hazard calculations on a range of scales, from detailed site-specific analysis to regional or global-scale models. However, users need to construct earthquake source models (ESMs), which characterize both the magnitude-frequency distribution of the earthquakes and their potential finite rupture geometries, and feed the ESMs to OpenQuake for hazard calculations. In this study, we propose a method to construct ESMs by integrating historical earthquake, geological fault, and strain rate data. The method requires division of the study area into large seismic zones, based on a set of defined seismotectonic criteria. For each zone, the seismicity rates are defined by a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) model. The TGR a- and bvalues are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from a geodetically-based strain rate model. Then, we model the spatial distribution of the seismic activity based on characteristics of active faults, and location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. The rates of large earthquakes accommodated on active faults are estimated based on the dimension, slip rate, and paleoseismic data of the faults. Remaining seismicity is distributed to the background using a smoothed seismicity model. Consistency between observed seismic activity rates and those predicted by the model should be verified in terms of both spatial and magnitude distributions. To achieve this, the OpenQuake-engine’s event-based seismic hazard tools are used to generate synthetic catalogs of tens or hundreds of thousands of years duration. We are developing a toolkit to implement this method. The toolkit is built upon the functionalities of GEM’s Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit. We use southwest China as an example to illustrate the method, workflow, and toolkit. We build the toolkit in a flexible manner so that users can make different modeling decisions at each step. This approach will help make the seismic hazard modeling process more transparent, and prompt the development of new methodologies for seismic hazard assessment.

000019819 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000019819 653__ $$aGEM, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, Earthquake Source Model

000019819 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000019819 720__ $$aPagani, Marco$$iMagistrale, Harold$$iWeatherill, Graeme$$iRong, Yufang
000019819 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000019819 8564_ $$s1439450$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/19819/files/448.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 448.
000019819 962__ $$r16048
000019819 980__ $$aPAPER