2015 Usgs Seismic Hazard Model for Induced Seismicity


Abstract eng:
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a 2016 one-year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) from induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates over the past few years can be used to assess future rates, and that the induced earthquakes follow a truncated Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency distribution. We assume a Poissonian recurrence model and utilize standard probabilistic methodology. In this paper, we (1) describe the input model, (2) discuss hazard sensitivity to magnitudes considered in the hazard analysis and earthquake catalog details, and (3) show results of the hazard analysis in terms of ground shaking and intensity. This paper presents a summary of the model and the detailed documentation is presented elsewhere. The input model allows for variability in the classification of earthquakes, catalog duration, smoothing distance, maximum magnitude, and ground motion model. We test the additional sensitivity of minimum magnitude considered in hazard calculations and whether a full or declustered catalog is applied. Results indicate that hazard is significantly higher than the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model when considering earthquakes induced by wastewater disposal in Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arkansas. Likelihood is high in those states for experiencing damage, mostly nonstructural but not excluding the possibility of structural damage. At sites in northern Oklahoma, the chance of having damage (MMI VI and greater) can exceed 5% to 10% in 2016. These rates are similar to those observed from long-term rates in California. In Oklahoma during 2016, the Fairview and Pawnee earthquakes were larger than M5 and produced reported shaking levels of MMI VI. This is consistent with the 2016 forecast.

Contributors:
Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
Rights:
Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.



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 Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18


Original version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 457.:
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