Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Continuous Steel Pipelines for Permanent Ground Displacement By Monte Carlo Simulations

Abstract eng:
Buried continuous steel pipelines are commonly used as reliable and economic means to transport oil and gas across the world. Such pipelines generally cover long distances and their exposure to the earthquakes while crossing active faults in earthquake-prone regions cannot be overlooked at the design stage. The mechanical properties of the material used in continuous steel pipes make them insensitive to dynamic ground motions intensity measures such as PGA and PGV. However, they are vulnerable to permanent fault offset (displacements) at fault crossings that should be considered in their design. This study presents a full probabilistic risk assessment of pipeline failure at fault crossings through hazard to risk. In order to achieve the probabilistic risk evaluation, the seismic hazard assessment of fault displacement using proposed Monte-Carlo simulation is first introduced. Then the proposed theory of the risk assessment is implemented to the case studies that focus on strike-slip fault crossings. Two uncertainties from the earthquakes, i.e., fault displacement and faultpipe crossing angles, are considered in the probabilistic risk assessment. The influence of these uncertainties in the risk of pipe failure is evaluated. The seismic risk of pipeline failure due to the actual fault rupture occurring at a distance far away from the mapped fault trace is additionally examined in the case studies. The probabilistic risk presented in the paper can be a useful reference for engineers to design and retrofit continuous pipes at fault crossings.

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