Seismic Loss Estimate of Singapore Under a Deterministic Sumatran Earthquake Scenario

Abstract eng:
Evaluation of seismic risk for large cities has become increasingly important due to the concentration of exposures resulting from their dense population and rapid economic growth. Singapore is a modern city located in a low-to-moderate seismicity zone. It has frequently felt shakings by long-distance major earthquakes originated from the Sumatra region. In this study, the seismic loss estimates are conducted for Singapore considering a deterministic earthquake scenario. A set of ground motions is simulated for a Sumatran strike-slip Mw 7.7 earthquake scenario. To quantify the site amplification effects of Singapore, 555 soil profiles which include shear-wave velocity and unit weight profiles are used. The collected boreholes can be grouped as ground types B, C and D, respectively. One-dimensional equivalent-linear analysis is performed using the SHAKE program. The main Singapore terrain is uniformly gridded in 200 m x 200 m squares, which result in 19,276 cells in total. Kriging techniques are then utilized to estimate surface ground motion intensity values at each cell. The building inventory data consist of about 123,000 buildings of 1 to 15 stories. For each building category, the structural losses can be estimated based on the capacity spectrum and fragility procedures in HAZUS-MH. The estimated structural losses of Singapore are about 0.5% of the total exposure. Since most Singapore buildings have been designed according to the BS code with the requirement of notional horizontal load, it is important to understand the seismic performance of buildings under the postulated scenarios of major long-distance earthquakes. This approach can also be applied to other major urban centers with significant exposures in a low to moderate seismicity region.

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