Simulation of Earthquake Libraries for Risk-Targeted and Performance-Based Design Concepts

Abstract eng:
For the study area of Central Europe, an intensity-based hazard and risk assessment model is developed. The procedures implemented are structured in a modular system. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses are performed using the program PSSAEL, which calculates Earthquake-Libraries on the basis of Extreme-Value statistics and GUMBEL-Parameters (m, τ, σ, Mmax). The HAZARD module enables the Monte Carlo simulation of earthquake libraries for different hazard levels, which are representative for the evaluation or design requirements. A set of empirical-statistically derived relationships between macroseismic intensity, distance, and source parameters has to be regarded as an essential element of the general approach. The quality of risk analysis and seismic design parameters depends on the quality of the catalogs and applied seismic source models. The definition of the seismic source zones is one of the key decisions to consider the inherent model uncertainties. The parameters of the simulated earthquakes can be directly related to ground motion prediction models. A new method is presented by linking results of site investigations (H/V spectra) with a self-designed strong-motion database including recordings from sites with instrumentally verified subsoil conditions. A cluster analysis is performed, taking H/V spectra from the target site measurements as search and evaluation criterion. Each measurement is providing a target function (H/V spectra) which is the basis for a ranking of the best fitting strong-motion recording sites. With the focus on return periods specified for a set of different limit states (or performance levels), characteristic damage grades can be postulated to establish the link to performance-based design concepts (on an empirical basis). About the return periods user demands (life-time) or the building category and the site-specific circumstances can be taken into account. Uncertainties of the modules seismic HAZARD and SOIL amplification can be applied to the predominant building types. In case of masonry structures the damage grades are predicted for all simulated scenarios on the basis of numerical simulations and further evaluation criteria implemented in the subroutines of the VULNERABILITY evaluation tool. Model sites and target areas (raster elements) within different seismic regions are investigated. In addition to the seismic active region of the Swabian Alb also low seismic metropolitan areas in Southeast Germany are considered.

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