000019952 001__ 19952
000019952 005__ 20170118182348.0
000019952 04107 $$aeng
000019952 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000019952 100__ $$aJalayer, Fatemeh
000019952 24500 $$aProbabilistic Connectivity Analysis for a Road Network Due To Seismically-Induced Disruptions

000019952 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000019952 260__ $$b
000019952 506__ $$arestricted
000019952 520__ $$2eng$$aIn the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake, the road networks play a crucial role in rescue and recovery operations. The damaged infrastructure may lose their transitability (fully or partially) leading to disruption of road links. The consequences in most cases go beyond the disruption of the road links. In fact, the disruption of a road link often influences the connectivity of the whole network. The connectivity (the connection between two specific points) is used herein in order to measure the post-event health status of a road network and to highlight its critical points. Connectivity in its simplest form (from point A to point B) is used as an index of overall system performance. That is, the probability that the connectivity from point A to B is lost has been interpreted as a measure of system vulnerability (i.e., reduction in reliability). Moreover, the expected value of the number of alternative routes from point A to point B is a measure of system's redundancy or robustness. Defining the connectivity between two given points as a binary logical statement with logical values TRUE or FALSE, the network reliability is formulated as a standard link-set formulation. Such formulation, in the general case where the connectivity of the alternative routes are not independent cannot be easily solved; hence, a simulation based approach has been adopted. In this work the disruption cause considered is due to an earthquake event and the network connectivity problem has been solved in a fully simulation-based manner. For a given earthquake scenario, a seismic intensity field has been generated taken into account spatial correlations in the residuals of the adopted ground motion prediction equation. On the other hand, also the seismic capacity of the vulnerable infrastructure given seismic intensity for a transitability limit state is simulated based on a joint probability distribution (considering the spatial correlations in the vulnerability of the infrastructure) and based on simplified working assumptions. Therefore, for each simulation, the ratio of the number of connected routes to total number of alternative routes is calculated. This results in information such as, the probability of the loss of connectivity between points A and B and the probability distribution (and statistics such as the expected value and the standard deviation) for the number of connected routes. The entire methodology has been demonstrated as an application to a real case-study for the road network infrastructure in the Campania Region (Italy).

000019952 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000019952 653__ $$aroad network connectivity, systemic reliability, seismic scenario, simulation-based reliability.

000019952 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000019952 720__ $$aJalayer, Fatemeh$$iMiano, Andrea$$iManfredi, Gaetano$$iCarozza, Stefano
000019952 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000019952 8564_ $$s924814$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/19952/files/4788.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 4788.
000019952 962__ $$r16048
000019952 980__ $$aPAPER