Consciousness Analysis of Evacuation From Complex Disaster

Abstract eng:
Approximately In this study, Adachi-ku Senju district in Tokyo was selected as an investigated district because this district has been designated by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government as an area having high fire and flood risks. Questionnaire survey was conducted for the residents in this district to collect data on level of recognitions about disaster damage estimates and recommended evacuation method. Moreover, stated-preference for disaster evacuation was also investigated. The obtained stated-preference data was utilized to estimate model describing citizen's disaster evacuation behavior that was formulated by nested-logit mode with three hierarchies. First hierarchy is evacuation/no evacuation choice behavior, second hierarchy is vertical/horizontal evacuation choice behavior and third hierarchy is evacuation place choice behavior. The evacuation behavior model was estimated by maximum likelihood estimation method and it was utilized to forecast the number of evacuee under certain disaster situation such as outbreak of the earthquake disaster and imminence of flood. Level of safety of evacuation method was evaluated using the pedestrian crowd evacuation simulation built in this study. The safety of each evacuation method was verified in terms of evacuation completion time, the risk of encountering danger during evacuation such as approaching to fire spot, walking in excessively crowded space, collision of falling object caused by aftershock, walking in inundated area, and etc.. It is expected that the results of this study is utilized as basic information to examine the safer evacuation method of the investigated district.

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