High Consequence Low Probility Earthquake Issues

Abstract eng:
The authors were involved in organizing a workshop on seismic hazard and design uncertainty issues in the Central United States, an area that can be defined as a high consequence-low probability region. Considerable controversy had been raised by a number of local and regional engineers following publication of the International Building Code in 2000 with statements like: 1) “The United States Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps portray the Central United States as a worst case,” and 2) “Kentucky should not be placed in a hazard category twice as dangerous as California or China – not reasonable.” In addition, the following points were made about the International Building Code: 1) Overstates earthquake risks during the useful life of a building; 2) Designates the New Madrid Seismic Zone as the most hazardous/highest risk in the lower 48 states; 3) Not cost effective for life safety, as it includes elements of property loss reduction; 4) Does not reflect safety, economic, and political realities of the community; and 5) Will not promote voluntary compliance. In addition, concerning the impact of cost for building construction following the adoption of the International Building Code, it was stated that: “Anticipated cost increases above the Southern Building Code 99 (current adopted code) for new building construction in the following categories are: 1) Residential, 10% to 15%, 2) Commercial, 10% to 15%, 3) Light industrial, 15% to 25% and 4) Heavy industrial, 25% to 35%.” This paper provides a summary of the workshop and discusses some key issues that many high consequence-low probability regions around the world may face as these regions attempt to adopt seismic building codes to reduce losses. The paper also adds some new findings that were not available at the workshop or in the workshop proceedings that shed considerable light on the cost of seismic design in the central and eastern United States, i.e., the cost of adopting the International Building Code is not as high as many have perceived.

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