000020257 001__ 20257
000020257 005__ 20170118182405.0
000020257 04107 $$aeng
000020257 046__ $$k2017-01-09
000020257 100__ $$aShanker, Daya
000020257 24500 $$aEarthquake Precursor and Earthquake Forecast in South Central Tibet Region of Himalaya

000020257 24630 $$n16.$$pProceedings of the 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000020257 260__ $$b
000020257 506__ $$arestricted
000020257 520__ $$2eng$$aSeismicity fluctuations in time and space have been observed before several major earthquakes of the world. Precursors are indications before the occurrence of main event. Seismic precursors are a set of events occurring in an area over an interval of time which may continue to several months without any outstanding principal earthquake. In the present investigation precursory seismicity patterns were discussed and used for the identification of precursory swarm to forecast the future earthquake in the considered region. In this concern, Seismicity data from 1963-2006 with mb ≥4.1 have been examined in the light of three medium size earthquakes sequence 1996 (mb 5.9), 1998 (mb 5.8) and 2004–2005 (mb 6.2, 6.3) occurred in the South Central Tibet Region (SCT) of Himalaya. Analysis indicates that these earthquakes were preceded by welldefined patterns of precursory swarms and seismicity varies as low-high-low phases in episodic mode. However, two anomalous seismicity patterns having similar spatial and temporal distributions separated by about 15 month’s duration exist during January 2002-February 2003 and June-August 2004 in the same area but without a mainshock till 2007. Study designates a potential location of future earthquake in the South Central Tibet (29.6-30.1o N and 87.8-88.1o E) with probable magnitude 6.0 and above in the depth ranges 25 ± 15 km. However, delay in this earthquake indicates a wider area be suspected at high risk as the swarm sequence follows another one.

000020257 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000020257 653__ $$aSeismic precursors; South Central Tibet Region (SCT); anomalous seismicity.

000020257 7112_ $$a16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cSantiago (CL)$$d2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13$$gWCEE16
000020257 720__ $$aShanker, Daya$$iPaudyal, H$$iSingh, H N
000020257 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000020257 8564_ $$s548886$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/20257/files/85.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 85.
000020257 962__ $$r16048
000020257 980__ $$aPAPER