Earthquake Precursor and Earthquake Forecast in South Central Tibet Region of Himalaya


Abstract eng:
Seismicity fluctuations in time and space have been observed before several major earthquakes of the world. Precursors are indications before the occurrence of main event. Seismic precursors are a set of events occurring in an area over an interval of time which may continue to several months without any outstanding principal earthquake. In the present investigation precursory seismicity patterns were discussed and used for the identification of precursory swarm to forecast the future earthquake in the considered region. In this concern, Seismicity data from 1963-2006 with mb ≥4.1 have been examined in the light of three medium size earthquakes sequence 1996 (mb 5.9), 1998 (mb 5.8) and 2004–2005 (mb 6.2, 6.3) occurred in the South Central Tibet Region (SCT) of Himalaya. Analysis indicates that these earthquakes were preceded by welldefined patterns of precursory swarms and seismicity varies as low-high-low phases in episodic mode. However, two anomalous seismicity patterns having similar spatial and temporal distributions separated by about 15 month’s duration exist during January 2002-February 2003 and June-August 2004 in the same area but without a mainshock till 2007. Study designates a potential location of future earthquake in the South Central Tibet (29.6-30.1o N and 87.8-88.1o E) with probable magnitude 6.0 and above in the depth ranges 25 ± 15 km. However, delay in this earthquake indicates a wider area be suspected at high risk as the swarm sequence follows another one.

Contributors:
Conference Title:
Conference Title:
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Venue:
Santiago (CL)
Conference Dates:
2017-01-09 / 2017-01-13
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Text je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.



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 Record created 2017-01-18, last modified 2017-01-18


Original version of the author's contribution as presented on USB, paper 85.:
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