Expected Economic Losses Due To Earthquakes in the Case of Traditional and Modern Masonry Buildings

Abstract eng:
A seismic loss estimation methodology for masonry buildings is briefly presented and its use is demonstrated by estimating seismic losses for a traditional and modern masonry building. The seismic loss methodology is based on PEER probabilistic approach, where the problem is first decomposed in seismic hazard analysis, structural analysis, damage analysis and loss analysis. The results of the analyses are then convolved in a probabilistic manner, using the total probability theorem. The methodology makes it possible to communicate information about seismic risk by various performance measures such as the probability of exceeding a certain damage state, the probability of exceeding a certain economic loss, the expected annual loss, and, for example, the expected loss given seismic intensity. An emphasis is given on the structural and damage analysis which means that the economic loss is simulated directly from the results of structural analyses. Since such an approach can become computationally quite demanding, the pushover-based method was used for the estimation of engineering demand parameters. The proposed methodology is capable to take into account the effects of ground-motion randomness and the epistemic uncertainty. However, for simplicity reasons the use of the methodology is demonstrated only by consideration of the ground-motion randomness which is approximately accounted for by the incremental dynamic analysis of an equivalent SDOF model. Seismic risk assessment was performed for two three-storey masonry buildings which have the same geometry but different quality of masonry with the aim to present the seismic risk of buildings built in various time periods. Results of the study indicated, that the median capacity of the modern building when expressed in terms of peak ground acceleration was almost 200 % higher than that of the traditional building. The probability of collapse in 50 years and the expected annual loss for the traditional masonry building were observed, respectively, 4.5 and 2.5 times higher than the results corresponding to the modern variant of the investigated building. The expected annual loss per 100 m2 of gross floor area was estimated to 50 and 123 € for modern and traditional variant of the building. It was also found that non-structural elements are the key components in the loss assessment model since they contribute more than 50 % of the total loss.

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