PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF COMMUNITY RESILIENCE USING DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION

Abstract eng:
This paper puts forward a comprehensive framework for probabilistic quantification of community resilience considering multiple interdependent infrastructure systems. The proposed framework integrates various dimensions of resilience including technical, organizational, social, and economic. To this end, first the post-hazard status of the components of the community, e.g., infrastructure systems, is determined through casualty and damage models. Next, discrete events simulation is employed to quantify the recovery of the community, and the infrastructures thereof. For this purpose, the community restoration capacity, comprising workforce, material, and equipment, is assigned to the damaged components, which produces repair events. Once a component restored, the status of all components is updated considering interdependencies. At this point, the framework quantifies the costs incurred by the community comprising direct costs, i.e., restoration and relocation costs, and indirect costs, i.e., business interruption and socioeconomic costs due to absence of services, during the pre-repair period. Thereafter, the released restoration capacity is reassigned to another unrestored component, producing another event. This process continues until all components reach the intended functionality. The total community cost, which is the accumulated cost over the entire recovery period, is regarded as an indicator of the community resilience. The functionality of different infrastructure systems as well as different dimensions of resilience is incorporated in this single global indicator. This, in turn, provides the ability to determine the importance of each component based on the extent of contribution to this indicator. Therefore, the proposed framework provides decision makers with a decision support tool to identify the optimal resource allocation strategy to achieve a resilient community. The proposed framework is showcased by an application to a community with a building portfolio, commercial units, transportation network, healthcare facilities, and a power distribution network.

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